PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Marina Voinson
AU  - Charline Smadi
AU  - Sylvain Billiard
TI  - How does the host community structure affect the epidemiological dynamics of emerging infectious diseases?
AID  - 10.1101/2022.01.23.477158
DP  - 2022 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 2022.01.23.477158
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2022/01/23/2022.01.23.477158.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2022/01/23/2022.01.23.477158.full
AB  - Many pathogens, especially those responsible for emerging infectious diseases, are transmitted in a host community. How the host community structure affects an epidemic is still debated, particularly whether increasing the host community complexity would tend to amplify or dilute the incidence of an epidemic in a target population, e.g. humans or cattle. In this paper, we build a stochastic SIR model and compare epidemiological dynamics in a target population between three simple host community structures with an increasing complexity. Globally, our results show two possible main outcomes. First, an intermediate host can have a diluting effect by preventing the direct transmission from hosts to the target population, thus reducing the prevalence of infection. Second, when two sources of infection are considered, the effects of the epidemic are generally amplified. By highlighting that the structure of the ecological hosts network can dramatically affect epidemics, our results may have implications for the control of emerging infectious diseases.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.