TY - JOUR T1 - The Past, Present and Future of Elephant Landscapes in Asia JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/2020.04.28.066548 SP - 2020.04.28.066548 AU - Shermin de Silva AU - Tiffany Wu AU - Philip Nyhus AU - Alison Thieme AU - Ashley Weaver AU - Josiah Johnson AU - Jamie Wadey AU - Alexander Mossbrucker AU - Thinh Vu AU - Thy Neang AU - Becky Shu Chen AU - Melissa Songer AU - Peter Leimgruber Y1 - 2022/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2022/05/17/2020.04.28.066548.abstract N2 - Habitat loss drives species’ declines worldwide, but is seldom quantified over centennial timescales. We constructed ecological niche models for Asian elephants based on land-use change between 850-2015, and predictions under six different climate/socioeconomic scenarios from 2015-2099. We find that over 64% of suitable natural habitat across diverse ecosystems was lost over the past three centuries. Average patch size dropped 83% from approximately 99,000 km2 to 16,000 km2 and the area occupied by the largest patch decreased 83% from ~ 4 million km2 (45% of area) to 54,000 km2 (~7.5% of area). Over half of current elephant range appears unsuitable. Habitat availability is predicted to decline further this century across all scenarios. The most severe losses occur under RCP3.4-SSP4, representing mid-range emissions but high regional inequities. We conclude that climate change mitigation measures must include policies to ensure inter-regional socioeconomic equity to safeguard landscapes for elephants, humans, and other species.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest. ER -