PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Alasdair D Henderson
AU  - Maite Aubry
AU  - Mike Kama
AU  - Jessica Vanhomwegen
AU  - Anita Teissier
AU  - Teheipuaura Mariteragi-Helle
AU  - Tuterarii Paoaafaite
AU  - Jean-Claude Manuguerra
AU  - W John Edmunds
AU  - Jimmy Whitworth
AU  - Conall H Watson
AU  - Colleen L Lau
AU  - Van-Mai Cao-Lormeau
AU  - Adam J Kucharski
TI  - Zika virus seroprevalence declines and neutralization antibodies wane in adults following outbreaks in French Polynesia and Fiji
AID  - 10.1101/578211
DP  - 2019 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 578211
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2019/03/15/578211.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2019/03/15/578211.full
AB  - Background Serosurveys published following major outbreaks of Zika virus (ZIKV) have so far shown a high level of seroprevalence from samples collected within 12 months of the first confirmed case. A common assumption is that ZIKV infection confers long-term protection against reinfection, preventing ZIKV from re-emerging in previously affected areas for many years. However, the long-term immune response to ZIKV following an outbreak remains poorly documented.Methods We compared results from eight serological surveys, with sample sizes ranging from 49 to 700, before and after known ZIKV outbreaks in the Pacific region: five from cross-sectional studies of schoolchildren and the general population in French Polynesia over a seven-year period; and three from a longitudinal cohort in Fiji over a four-year period.Findings We found strong evidence of a decline in seroprevalence in both countries over a two-year period following first reported ZIKV transmission. In the cohort in Fiji, there was also a significant decline in antibody titres against ZIKV. However, the decline in seroprevalence was concentrated in adults, while high seroprevalence persisted in children.Interpretation The observed patterns of long-term anti-ZIKV antibody levels following outbreaks in the Pacific could be an early indication of the dynamics of population immunity in Latin America. Given that ZIKV antibody levels can wane substantially over time, follow-up seroprevalence studies and prospective clinical trial designs in Latin America may need to be revised, and assumptions about the potential for ZIKV to re-emerge may need to be revisited.Funding Pacific Funds, ANR, MRC, Wellcome, Royal Society.