TY - JOUR T1 - Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/2022.06.15.496305 SP - 2022.06.15.496305 AU - Devin Kirk AU - Samantha Straus AU - Marissa L. Childs AU - Mallory Harris AU - Lisa Couper AU - T. Jonathan Davies AU - Coreen Forbes AU - Alyssa-Lois Gehman AU - Maya L. Groner AU - Christopher Harley AU - Kevin D. Lafferty AU - Van Savage AU - Eloise Skinner AU - Mary O’Connor AU - Erin A. Mordecai Y1 - 2022/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2022/06/17/2022.06.15.496305.abstract N2 - Temperature can influence mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. These effects are expected to vary geographically and over time in both magnitude and direction and may interact with other environmental variables, making it difficult to anticipate changes in response to climate change. Here, we investigate global variation in temperature–dengue relationship by analyzing published correlations between temperature and dengue and matching them with remotely sensed climatic and socioeconomic data. We found that the correlation between temperature and dengue was most positive at intermediate (near 24°C) temperatures, as predicted from the thermal biology of the mosquito and virus. Positive temperature–dengue associations were strongest when temperature variation and population density were high and decreased with infection burden and rainfall mean and variation, suggesting alternative limiting factors on transmission. Our results show that while climate effects on diseases are context-dependent they are also predictable from the thermal biology of transmission and its environmental and social mediators.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest. ER -