RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 101972
DO 10.1101/101972
A1 J Lourenço
A1 M Maia de Lima
A1 NR Faria
A1 A Walker
A1 MUG Kraemer
A1 CJ Villabona-Arenas
A1 B Lambert
A1 E Marques de Cerqueira
A1 OG Pybus
A1 LCJ Alcantara
A1 M Recker
YR 2017
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/01/20/101972.abstract
AB Zika has emerged as a global public health concern. Although its rapid geographic expansion can be attributed to the success of its Aedes mosquito vectors, local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. The city of Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the early phases of the Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in Brazil. Here, using a climate-driven transmission model, we show that low Zika observation rates and a high vectorial capacity in this region were responsible for a high attack rate during the 2015 outbreak and the subsequent decline in cases in 2016, when the epidemic was peaking in the rest of the country. Our projections indicate that the balance between the loss of herd-immunity and the frequency of viral re-importation will dictate the transmission potential of Zika in this region in the near future. Sporadic outbreaks are expected but unlikely to be detected under current surveillance systems.