RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Mapping current and future thermal limits to suitability for malaria transmission by the invasive mosquito Anopheles stephensi JF bioRxiv FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory SP 2022.12.15.520598 DO 10.1101/2022.12.15.520598 A1 Sadie J. Ryan A1 Catherine A. Lippi A1 Oswaldo C. Villena A1 Aspen Singh A1 Courtney C. Murdock A1 Leah R. Johnson YR 2022 UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2022/12/19/2022.12.15.520598.abstract AB Background Anopheles stephensi is a malaria-transmitting mosquito that has recently expanded from its primary range in Asia and the Middle East, to locations in Africa. This species is a competent vector of both P. falciparum (PF) and P. vivax (PV) malaria. Perhaps most alarming, the characteristics of An. stephensi, such as container breeding and anthropophily, make it particularly adept at exploiting built environments in areas with no prior history of malaria risk.Methods In this paper we created global maps of thermal transmission suitability and people at risk (PAR) for malaria transmission by An. stephensi, under current and future climate. Temperature-dependent transmission suitability thresholds derived from recently published species-specific thermal curves were used to threshold gridded, monthly mean temperatures under current and future climatic conditions. These temperature driven transmission models were coupled with gridded population data for 2020 and 2050, under climate-matched scenarios for future outcomes, to compare with baseline predictions for 2020 populations.Results Using the Global Burden of Disease regions approach, we found that heterogenous regional increases and decreases in risk did not mask the overall pattern of massive increases of PAR for malaria transmission suitability with An. stephensi presence. General patterns of poleward expansion for thermal suitability were seen for both PF and PV transmission potential.Conclusions Understanding the potential suitability for An. stephensi transmission in a changing climate provides a key tool for planning, given an ongoing invasion and expansion of the vector. Anticipating the potential impact of onward expansion to transmission suitable areas, and the size of population at risk under future climate scenarios, and where they occur, can serve as a large-scale call for attention, planning, and monitoring.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.CGIARConsultative Group for International Agricultural ResearchCMIPClimate Model Intercomparison ProjectGCMGeneral Circulation ModelGPWGridded Population of the WorldRCPRepresentative Concentration PathwaySSPShared Socioeconomic PathwayWHOWorld Health Organization