RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Infectious Reactivation of Cytomegalovirus Explaining Age- and Sex-Specific Patterns of Seroprevalence
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 102491
DO 10.1101/102491
A1 Michiel van Boven
A1 Jan van de Kassteele
A1 Marjolein J. Korndewal
A1 Christiaan H. van Dorp
A1 Mirjam Kretzschmar
A1 Fiona van der Klis
A1 Hester E. de Melker
A1 Ann C. Vossen
A1 Debbie van Baarle
YR 2017
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/01/24/102491.abstract
AB Human cytomegalovirus is a herpes virus with poorly understood transmission dynamics. We here provide quantitative estimates of the transmissibility of primary infection, reactivation, and re-infection using age-and sex-specific antibody response data. The data are optimally described by three distributions of antibody measurements, i.e. uninfected, infected, and infected after reactivation/re-infection. Estimates of seroprevalence increase gradually with age, such that at 80 years 73% (95%CrI: 64%-78%) of females and 62% (95%CrI: 55%-68%) of males is infected, while 57% (95%CrI: 47%-67%) of females and 37% (95%CrI: 28%-46%) of males has experienced a reactivation or re-infection episode. Merging the statistical analyses with transmission models, we find that infectious reactivation is key to provide a good fit fit to the data. Estimated reactivation rates increase from low values in children to 2%-6% per year older women. The results advance a hypothesis in which adult-to-adult transmission after infectious reactivation is the main driver of infection.