RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Personalized Risk Prediction for Cancer Survivors: A Bayesian Semi-parametric Recurrent Event Model with Competing Outcomes
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 2023.02.28.530537
DO 10.1101/2023.02.28.530537
A1 Nguyen, Nam H
A1 Shin, Seung Jun
A1 Dodd-Eaton, Elissa B
A1 Ning, Jing
A1 Wang, Wenyi
YR 2023
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2023/03/06/2023.02.28.530537.abstract
AB Multiple primary cancers are increasingly more frequent due to improved survival of cancer patients. Characteristics of the first primary cancer largely impact the risk of developing subsequent primary cancers. Hence, model-based risk characterization of cancer survivors that captures patient-specific variables is needed for healthcare policy making. We propose a Bayesian semi-parametric framework, where the occurrence processes of the competing cancer types follow independent non-homogeneous Poisson processes and adjust for covariates including the type and age at diagnosis of the first primary. Applying this framework to a historically collected cohort with families presenting a highly enriched history of multiple primary tumors and diverse cancer types, we have derived a suite of age-to-onset penetrance curves for cancer survivors. This includes penetrance estimates for second primary lung cancer, potentially impactful to ongoing cancer screening decisions. Using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, we have validated the good predictive performance of our models in predicting second primary lung cancer, sarcoma, breast cancer, and all other cancers combined, with areas under the curves (AUCs) at 0.89, 0.91, 0.76 and 0.68, respectively. In conclusion, our framework provides covariate-adjusted quantitative risk assessment for cancer survivors, hence moving a step closer to personalized health management for this unique population.Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.