PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Newbold, Tim
AU  - Kerr, Jeremy
AU  - Soroye, Peter
AU  - Williams, Jessica J.
TI  - Bumblebee occupancy responds to complex interactions between local and landscape land use, climatic niche properties and climate change
AID  - 10.1101/2023.09.12.557199
DP  - 2023 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 2023.09.12.557199
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2023/09/15/2023.09.12.557199.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2023/09/15/2023.09.12.557199.full
AB  - Insect biodiversity is changing rapidly, driven by a complex suite of pressures, foremost among which are human land use, land-use intensification, and increasingly climate change. Bumblebees deliver important pollination services to wild plants and human crops, but we lack large-scale empirical evidence on how land use and climate change interact to drive bumblebee biodiversity changes. We assess bumblebee occupancy responses to interactive effects of land use and climate pressures across North America and Western Europe. Occupancy increases with landscape natural habitat and decreases with the duration of human use of landscapes. Responses to historical climate warming are negative in natural habitats but positive in human land uses, while human land use reduces occupancy most in the centre of species’ temperature niches. We estimate that the combined pressures have reduced bumblebee occupancy by 61% across sampled natural habitats, and 65% across human land uses, suggesting that treating present-day natural habitats as an undisturbed reference is misleading. Our results can inform efforts to conserve bumblebee biodiversity in the face of ongoing land-use changes and accelerating climatic changes.One-sentence summary Land use and climate change interact to drive large declines in bumblebee occupancy in both natural and human-modified habitatsCompeting Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.