RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 A mathematical model for Dengue and Chikungunya in Mexico
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 122556
DO 10.1101/122556
A1 Nohemí Báez-Hernández
A1 Mauricio Casas-Martínez
A1 Rogelio Danis-Lozano
A1 Jorge X. Velasco-Hernández
YR 2017
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/03/30/122556.abstract
AB We present a model that incorporates two co-circulating viral diseases, Dengue and Chikungunya, where we allow secondary infections from either of the two diseases. We only consider one vector population, Ae. aegypti since in the Mexican region where we set our scenarios, only this species has been reported to transmit both viruses. We estimate the basic reproduction number and perform numerical simulations for different scenarios where we may observe coexistence of Dengue and Chikungunya; we also compare the results of the model with Dengue and Chikungunya data from Mexico 2015 and we obtain a good model fit. To complete our findings we perform a sensitivity analysis, and calculate the partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs) to determine the parameter values influence on the reproduction numbers and predict fate of the diseases.We show that R0 for each one of the viruses is highly sensitive to the mosquito biting rate and the transmission rates for both diseases with positive influence and the average lifespan of mosquito along with the human recovery rate with negative influence on both diseases. Our results are consistent with those of previous authors.