TY - JOUR T1 - Changing geographic patterns and risk factors for avian influenza A(H7N9) infection in China JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/146183 SP - 146183 AU - Jean Artois AU - Xiling Wang AU - Hui Jiang AU - Ying Qin AU - Morgan Pearcy AU - Shengjie Lai AU - Yujing Shi AU - Juanjuan Zhang AU - Zhibin Peng AU - Jiandong Zheng AU - Yangni He AU - Madhur S Dhingra AU - Sophie von Dobschuetz AU - Fusheng Guo AU - Vincent Martin AU - Wantanee Kalpravidh AU - Filip Claes AU - Timothy Robinson AU - Simon I. Hay AU - Xiangming Xiao AU - Luzhao Feng AU - Marius Gilbert AU - Hongjie Yu Y1 - 2017/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/06/08/146183.abstract N2 - The 5th epidemic wave in 2016-2017 of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China caused more human cases than any previous waves but the factors that may explain the recent range expansion and surge in incidence remain unknown. We investigated the effect of anthropogenic, poultry and wetland information and of market closures on all epidemic waves (1-5). Poultry predictor variables recently became much more important than before, supporting the assumption of much wider H7N9 transmission in the chicken reservoir, that could be linked to increases in pathogenicity. We show that the future range expansion of H7N9 to northern China may translate into a higher risk of coinciding peaks with those of seasonal influenza, leading to a higher risk of reassortments. Live-poultry market closures are showed to be effective in reducing the local incidence rates of H7N9 human cases, but should be paired with other prevention and control measures to prevent transmission. ER -