TY - JOUR T1 - Climate change drives uncertain global shifts in potential distribution and seasonal risk of <em>Aedes</em>-transmitted viruses JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/172221 SP - 172221 AU - Sadie J. Ryan AU - Colin J. Carlson AU - Erin A. Mordecai AU - Leah R. Johnson Y1 - 2017/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/08/04/172221.1.abstract N2 - Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on the global distribution and burden of infectious diseases1–3. Current knowledge suggests that mosquito-borne diseases could expand dramatically in response to climate change4,5. However, the physiological and epidemiological relationships between mosquito vectors and the environment are complex and often non-linear, and experimental work has showed an idiosyncratic relationship between warming temperatures and disease transmission6,7. Accurately forecasting the potential impacts of climate change on Aedes-borne viruses—especially dengue, chikungunya, and Zika—thus becomes a key problem for public health preparedness4,8,9. We apply an empirically parameterized Bayesian model of Aedes transmission of these viruses as a function of temperature6 to predict cumulative monthly global transmission risk in current climates, and compare against projected risk in 2050 and 2070 based on general circulation models (GCMs). Our results show that shifting suitability will track optimal temperatures for transmission (26-29 °C), potentially leading to poleward shifts. Furthermore, especially for Ae. albopictus, extreme temperatures are likely to limit transmission risk in current zones of endemicity, especially the tropics. The patterns of impact of changing minimum and maximum predicted temperatures lead to idiosyncratic outcomes for people at risk in the future. Validating these results with observed epidemic dynamics in upcoming decades will be paramount if global public health infrastructure is expected to keep pace with expanding vector-borne disease. ER -