PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Markus D. Schirmer
AU  - Mark R. Etherton
AU  - Adrian V. Dalca
AU  - Anne-Katrin Giese
AU  - Lisa Cloonan
AU  - Ona Wu
AU  - Polina Golland
AU  - Natalia S. Rost
TI  - Effective reserve: a latent variable to improve outcome prediction in stroke
AID  - 10.1101/192823
DP  - 2017 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 192823
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/09/23/192823.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/09/23/192823.full
AB  - Background Prediction of functional outcome after stroke based on initial presentation remains an open challenge, suggesting that an important aspect is missing from these prediction models. There exists the notion of a protective mechanism called brain reserve, which may be utilized to understand variations in disease outcome. In this work we expand the concept of brain reserve (effective reserve) to improve prediction models of functional outcome after acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods Consecutive AIS patients with acute brain MRI (<48 hours) were eligible for this study. White matter hyperintensity and acute infarct volume were determined on T2 fluid attenuated inversion recovery and diffusion weighted images, respectively. Modified Rankin Scale scores (mRS) were obtained at 90 days post-stroke. Effective reserve (eR) was defined as a latent variable using structural equation modeling by including age, systolic blood pressure, and intracranial volume measurements.Results Of 453 AIS patients (mean age 66.6±14.7 years), 36% were male and 311 hypertensive. There was inverse association between eR and 90-day mRS (path coefficient -0.18±0.01, p<0.01). As compared to a model without eR, correlation between predicted mRS and observed mRS improved in the eR-based model (Spearman’s ρ 0.29±0.18 versus 0.15±0.17, p<0.001). Furthermore, hypertensive patients exhibited lower eR (p<10−6).Conclusion Using eR in prediction models of stroke outcome is feasible and leads to better model performance. Furthermore, higher eR is associated with more favorable functional post-stoke outcome and might correspond to an overall better vascular health.