PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Xiangjun Du
AU  - Aaron A. King
AU  - Robert J. Woods
AU  - Mercedes Pascual
TI  - Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)
AID  - 10.1101/198168
DP  - 2017 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 198168
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/10/04/198168.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/10/04/198168.full
AB  - Inter-pandemic or seasonal influenza exacts an enormous annual burden both in terms of human health and economic impact. Incidence prediction ahead of season remains a challenge largely because of the virus’ antigenic evolution. We propose here a forecasting approach that incorporates evolutionary change into a mechanistic epidemiological model. The proposed models are simple enough that their parameters can be estimated from retrospective surveillance data. These models link amino-acid sequences of hemagglutinin epitopes with a transmission model for seasonal H3N2 influenza, also informed by H1N1 levels. With a monthly time series of H3N2 incidence in the United States over 10 years, we demonstrate the feasibility of prediction ahead of season and an accurate real-time forecast for the 2016/2017 influenza season.SUMMARY Skillful forecasting of seasonal (H3N2) influenza incidence ahead of the season is shown to be possible by means of a transmission model that explicitly tracks evolutionary change in the virus, integrating information from both epidemiological surveillance and readily available genetic sequences.