PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Abhirup Datta
AU  - Wenyi Lin
AU  - Amrita Rao
AU  - Daouda Diouf
AU  - Abo Kouame
AU  - Jessie K Edwards
AU  - Le Bao
AU  - Thomas A Louis
AU  - Stefan Baral
TI  - Bayesian estimation of MSM population size in Côte d’Ivoire
AID  - 10.1101/213926
DP  - 2017 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 213926
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/11/10/213926.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/11/10/213926.full
AB  - Côte d’Ivoire has one of the largest HIV epidemics in West Africa with around half million people living with HIV. Key populations like gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are often disproportionately burdened with HIV due to specific acquisition and transmission risks. Quantifying the MSM population sizes at subnational level is critical to improving the HIV prevention interventions. While survey-based direct estimates of MSM numbers are available at a few urban centers in Cˆote d’Ivoire, no data on MSM population size exists at other areas without any community infrastructure to facilitate sufficient access to the MSM community. We use this limited data in a Bayesian regression setup to produce first empirically calculated estimates of the numbers of MSM in all areas of Cˆote d’Ivoire prioritized in the HIV response. Our hierarchical model imputes missing covariates using geospatial information and allows for proper uncertainty quantification leading to meaningful confidence bounds for the predicted MSM population size estimates. The intended impact of this process is to increase uptake and use of high quality, comprehensive epidemiologic and interventional data in program planning. These estimates will help design future surveys and support the planning of the scale and content of HIV prevention and treatment programs for MSM in Cˆote d’Ivoire.