RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Prediction of migratory routes of the invasive fall armyworm in eastern China using a trajectory analytical approach
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 625632
DO 10.1101/625632
A1 Xi-Jie Li
A1 Ming-Fei Wu
A1 Jian Ma
A1 Bo-Ya Gao
A1 Qiu-Lin Wu
A1 Ai-Dong Chen
A1 Jie Liu
A1 Yu-Ying Jiang
A1 Bao-Ping Zhai
A1 Regan Early
A1 Jason W. Chapman
A1 Gao Hu
YR 2019
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2019/05/02/625632.abstract
AB BACKGROUND The fall armyworm (FAW), an invasive pest from the Americas, is rapidly spreading through the Old World, and has recently invaded the Indochinese Peninsula and southern China. In the Americas, FAW migrates from winter-breeding areas in the south into summer-breeding areas throughout North America where it is a major pest of corn. Asian populations are also likely to evolve migrations into the corn-producing regions of eastern China, where they will pose a serious threat to food security.RESULTS To evaluate the invasion risk in eastern China, the rate of expansion and future migratory range was modelled by a trajectory simulation approach, combined with flight behaviour and meteorological data. Our results predict that FAW will migrate from its new year-round breeding regions into the two main corn-producing regions of eastern China (the North China and Northeast China Plains), via two pathways. The western pathway originates in Myanmar and Yunnan, and FAW will take four migration steps to reach the North China Plain by July. Migration along the eastern pathway from Indochina and southern China progresses faster, with FAW reaching the North China Plain in three steps by June and reaching the Northeast China Plain in July.CONCLUSION Our results indicate that there is a high risk that FAW will invade the major corn-producing areas of eastern China via two migration pathways, and cause significant impacts to agricultural productivity. Information on migration pathways and timings can be used to inform integrated pest management strategies for this emerging pest.