RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 MERS-CoV spillover at the camel-human interface
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 173211
DO 10.1101/173211
A1 Gytis Dudas
A1 Luiz Max Carvalho
A1 Andrew Rambaut
A1 Trevor Bedford
A1 Ali M. Somily
A1 Mazin Barry
A1 Sarah S. Al Subaie
A1 Abdulaziz A. BinSaeed
A1 Fahad A. Alzamil
A1 Waleed Zaher
A1 Theeb Al Qahtani
A1 Khaldoon Al Jerian
A1 Scott J.N. McNabb
A1 Imad A. Al-Jahdali
A1 Ahmed M. Alotaibi
A1 Nahid A. Batarfi
A1 Matthew Cotten
A1 Simon J. Watson
A1 Spela Binter
A1 Paul Kellam
YR 2017
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/12/20/173211.abstract
AB Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) is a zoonotic virus from camels causing significant mortality and morbidity in humans in the Arabian Peninsula. The epidemiology of the virus remains poorly understood, and while case-based and seroepidemiological studies have been employed extensively throughout the epidemic, viral sequence data have not been utilised to their full potential. Here we use existing MERS-CoV sequence data to explore its phylodynamics in two of its known major hosts, humans and camels. We employ structured coalescent models to show that long-term MERS-CoV evolution occurs exclusively in camels, whereas humans act as a transient, and ultimately terminal host. By analysing the distribution of human outbreak cluster sizes and zoonotic introduction times we show that human outbreaks in the Arabian peninsula are driven by seasonally varying zoonotic transfer of viruses from camels. Without heretofore unseen evolution of host tropism, MERS-CoV is unlikely to become endemic in humans.