RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
T1 Tracking progress towards malaria elimination in China: estimates of reproduction numbers and their spatiotemporal variation
JF bioRxiv
FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
SP 628842
DO 10.1101/628842
A1 Isobel Routledge
A1 Shengjie Lai
A1 Katherine E Battle
A1 Azra C Ghani
A1 Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez
A1 Kyle B Gustafson
A1 Swapnil Mishra
A1 Joshua L Proctor
A1 Andrew J Tatem
A1 Zhongjie Li
A1 Samir Bhatt
YR 2019
UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2019/05/10/628842.abstract
AB China reported zero locally-acquired malaria cases in 2017 and 2018. Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern underlying this decline, especially the relationship between locally-acquired and imported cases, can inform efforts to maintain elimination and prevent re-emergence. This is particularly pertinent in Yunnan province, where the potential for local transmission is highest. Using a geo-located individual-level dataset of cases recorded in Yunnan province between 2011 and 2016, we jointly estimate the case reproduction number, Rc, and the number of unobserved sources of infection. We use these estimates within spatio-temporal geostatistical models to map how transmission varied over time and space, estimate the timeline to elimination and the risk of resurgence. Our estimates suggest that, maintaining current intervention efforts, Yunnan is unlikely to experience sustained local transmission up to 2020. However, even with a mean Rc of 0.005 projected for the year 2019, locally-acquired cases are possible due to high levels of importation.