PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Sarah F. McGough
AU  - Cesar L. Clemente
AU  - J. Nathan Kutz
AU  - Mauricio Santillana
TI  - Combining weather patterns and cycles of population susceptibility to forecast dengue fever epidemic years in Brazil: a dynamic, ensemble learning approach
AID  - 10.1101/666628
DP  - 2019 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 666628
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2019/06/14/666628.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2019/06/14/666628.full
AB  - Transmission of dengue fever depends on a complex interplay of human, climate, and mosquito dynamics, which often change in time and space. It is well known that disease dynamics are highly influenced by a population’s susceptibility to infection and microclimates, small-area climatic conditions which create environments favorable for the breeding and survival of the mosquito vector. Here, we present a novel machine learning dengue forecasting approach, which, dynamically in time and adaptively in space, identifies local patterns in weather and population susceptibility to make epidemic predictions at the city-level in Brazil, months ahead of the occurrence of disease outbreaks. Weather-based predictions are improved when information on population susceptibility is incorporated, indicating that immunity is an important predictor neglected by most dengue forecast models. Given the generalizability of our methodology, it may prove valuable for public-health decision making aimed at mitigating the effects of seasonal dengue outbreaks in locations globally.