TY - JOUR T1 - Local patch occupancy dynamics match the distribution of European trees at continental scale JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/748483 SP - 748483 AU - Arnaud Guyennon AU - Björn Reineking AU - Jonas Dahlgren AU - Gerald Kändler AU - Aleksi Lehtonen AU - Sophia Ratcliffe AU - Paloma Ruiz-Benito AU - Miguel A. Zavala AU - Georges Kunstler Y1 - 2019/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2019/08/29/748483.abstract N2 - Processes driving current tree species distribution are still largely debated, and large uncertainties about processes and scales at play remain. Attempts to relate environmental factors and population related metrics have shown mixed results, and the link between tree species range and their population dynamics are unclear. In this context, we would like to test the hypotheses that metapopulation processes drive range limits. We defined for each of the 17 tree species analyzed a species distribution model (SDM) relating environmental variables to their current distribution. We then test whether colonization and extinction probabilities are related to probability of presence estimated by the SDMs. Harmonized national forest inventories across Europe, that includes several censuses, were used to calibrate a dynamic patch occupancy model based on the probability of presence derived from SDMs. Results show for most species that colonization probabilities increased with increasing probability of presence, and conversely extinction probabilities decreased. Using these results, we evaluated whether the equilibrium probability of presence derived form the patch occupancy model match the observed species distribution. ER -