PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - HyeJin Kim
AU  - Isabel M.D. Rosa
AU  - Rob Alkemade
AU  - Paul Leadley
AU  - George Hurtt
AU  - Alexander Popp
AU  - Detlef P van Vuuren
AU  - Peter Anthoni
AU  - Almut Arneth
AU  - Daniele Baisero
AU  - Emma Caton
AU  - Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
AU  - Louise Chini
AU  - Adriana De Palma
AU  - Fulvio Di Fulvio
AU  - Moreno Di Marco
AU  - Felipe Espinoza
AU  - Simon Ferrier
AU  - Shinichiro Fujimori
AU  - Ricardo E. Gonzalez
AU  - Carlos Guerra
AU  - Mike Harfoot
AU  - Thomas D. Harwood
AU  - Tomoko Hasegawa
AU  - Vanessa Haverd
AU  - Petr Havlík
AU  - Stefanie Hellweg
AU  - Samantha L. L. Hill
AU  - Akiko Hirata
AU  - Andrew J. Hoskins
AU  - Jan H. Janse
AU  - Walter Jetz
AU  - Justin A. Johnson
AU  - Andreas Krause
AU  - David Leclère
AU  - Ines S. Martins
AU  - Tetsuya Matsui
AU  - Cory Merow
AU  - Michael Obersteiner
AU  - Haruka Ohashi
AU  - Benjamin Poulter
AU  - Andy Purvis
AU  - Benjamin Quesada
AU  - Carlo Rondinini
AU  - Aafke Schipper
AU  - Richard Sharp
AU  - Kiyoshi Takahashi
AU  - Wilfried Thuiller
AU  - Nicolas Titeux
AU  - Piero Visconti
AU  - Christopher Ware
AU  - Florian Wolf
AU  - Henrique M. Pereira
TI  - A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios
AID  - 10.1101/300632
DP  - 2018 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 300632
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/04/16/300632.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/04/16/300632.full
AB  - To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.