PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Georges Kunstler
AU  - Arnaud Guyennon
AU  - Sophia Ratcliffe
AU  - Nadja Rüger
AU  - Paloma Ruiz-Benito
AU  - Dylan Z. Childs
AU  - Jonas Dahlgren
AU  - Aleksi Lehtonen
AU  - Wilfried Thuiller
AU  - Christian Wirth
AU  - Miguel A. Zavala
AU  - Roberto Salguero-Gomez
TI  - ‘Tree demographic performance of European tree species at their hot and cold edges.’
AID  - 10.1101/801084
DP  - 2019 Jan 01
TA  - bioRxiv
PG  - 801084
4099  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2019/10/13/801084.short
4100  - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2019/10/13/801084.full
AB  - Species range limits are thought to result from a decline in demographic performance because of unsuitable climate at the edges. However, recent studies reporting contradictory patterns in tree species demographic performance at their edges cast doubt on our ability to predict climate change impacts on species ranges. Here we parameterised integral projection models with climate and competition effects for 27 tree species using forest inventory data from over 90,000 plots across Europe. Then, we predicted growth, survival, lifespan, and passage time – the time to grow to a large size – at the hot and cold edges and compared them to the range centre. We found that while growth and passage time of European tree species are constrained at their cold edge, survival and lifespan are constrained at their hot edge. Our study shows a more complicated picture than previously thought with demographic responses that differ between hot and cold edges.