%0 Journal Article
%A Hangya, Balázs
%A Sanders, Joshua I.
%A Kepecs, Adam
%T A mathematical framework for statistical decision confidence
%D 2016
%R 10.1101/017400
%J bioRxiv
%P 017400
%X Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. Confidence can be framed as an objective mathematical quantity the Bayesian posterior probability, providing a formal definition of statistical decision confidence. Here we use this definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. We analytically prove interrelations between statistical decision confidence and other observable decision measures. Among these is a counterintuitive property of confidence that the lowest average confidence occurs when classifiers err in the presence of the strongest evidence. These results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human behavior to neural representations.
%U https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2016/01/01/017400.full.pdf