PT - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU - Hangya, Balázs
AU - Sanders, Joshua I.
AU - Kepecs, Adam
TI - A mathematical framework for statistical decision confidence
AID - 10.1101/017400
DP - 2016 Jan 01
TA - bioRxiv
PG - 017400
4099 - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/01/01/017400.short
4100 - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2016/01/01/017400.full
AB - Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. Confidence can be framed as an objective mathematical quantity the Bayesian posterior probability, providing a formal definition of statistical decision confidence. Here we use this definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. We analytically prove interrelations between statistical decision confidence and other observable decision measures. Among these is a counterintuitive property of confidence that the lowest average confidence occurs when classifiers err in the presence of the strongest evidence. These results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human behavior to neural representations.