RT Journal Article SR Electronic T1 Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis JF bioRxiv FD Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory SP 323915 DO 10.1101/323915 A1 Kathleen M O’Reilly A1 Rachel Lowe A1 W John Edmunds A1 Philippe Mayaud A1 Adam Kucharski A1 Rosalind M Eggo A1 Sebastian Funk A1 Deepit Bhatia A1 Kamran Khan A1 Moritz U Kraemar A1 Annelies Wilder-Smith A1 Laura C Rodrigues A1 Patricia Brasil A1 Eduardo Massad A1 Thomas Jaenisch A1 Simon Cauchemez A1 Oliver J Brady A1 Laith Yakob YR 2018 UL http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2018/05/18/323915.abstract AB Background Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America & the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, and has had serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and a lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.Methods Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 91 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vector capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories.Results There was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p<0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases.Conclusions The findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in LAC in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.