Confinement of gene drive systems to local populations: A comparative analysis
Highlights
► Gene drive systems are planned to drive anti-disease genes into vector populations. ► Confinement of transgenes to release sites is desirable during field trials. ► Underdominant systems spread locally and show strong confinement potential. ► Toxin–antidote systems are confineable and require lower introduction frequencies. ► Killer-rescue is self-limiting in time but disperses into neighboring populations.
Introduction
Mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya and malaria continue to pose a major health problem through much of the world. Treatments for dengue fever and chikungunya remain elusive, and malaria is proving exceptionally difficult to control in highly endemic areas with insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying and antimalarial drugs (Griffin et al., 2010, World Health Organization, 2010). The failure of currently available methods to control these diseases has renewed interest in approaches to disease prevention that involve the use of gene drive systems to spread disease-refractory genes into wild mosquito populations (Alphey et al., 2002, Marshall and Taylor, 2009). Such strategies are attractive because they are self-perpetuating and are expected to result in disease suppression far beyond the release site.
A number of gene drive systems have been proposed, including naturally occurring selfish genetic elements such as transposable elements (TEs), post-meiotic segregation distorters, Medea elements, homing endonuclease genes (HEGs), and the intracellular bacterium Wolbachia (Braig and Yan, 2001, Gould and Schliekelman, 2004, Sinkins and Gould, 2006). Another set of approaches to bringing about population replacement involves creating insects in which genes of interest are linked to engineered chromosomes: compound chromosomes or translocations (Curtis, 1968, Foster et al., 1972), or pairs of unlinked lethal genes, each of which is associated with a repressor of the lethality induced by expression of the other lethal gene—a system known as engineered underdominance (Davis et al., 2001, Magori and Gould, 2006).
An essential feature of population replacement is the ability of released transgenic insects to spread disease-refractory genes through a wild population on a human timescale. The observation that several naturally occurring selfish elements have spread over wide geographical areas – a TE in Drosophila melanogaster (Kidwell, 1983), Wolbachia in Drosophila simulans (Turelli and Hoffmann, 1991), and Medea in Tribolium (Beeman and Friesen, 1999, Lorenzen et al., 2008) – provides encouragement for this strategy. However, these observations also highlight the potential for gene drive systems to spread transgenes into countries before they have agreed to their introduction (Knols et al., 2007). The Cartagena Protocol – the United Nations protocol on the international movement of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) – is prohibitive of a release of GMOs capable of self-propagating across national borders in the absence of a multilateral international agreement (Marshall, 2010). It also allows nations to decide for themselves how they would like to regulate the import of GMOs.
The movement of mosquitoes carrying transgenes also requires consideration at the community level. A recent survey of public attitudes to a release of malaria-refractory mosquitoes in Mali suggests that a small number of people would be happy for the first release to be conducted in their community; however, most people would first like to see the results of a release in an isolated community where malaria prevalence has been shown to decrease in the absence of side-effects (Marshall et al., 2010). These regulations and societal views highlight the importance of confining the first releases of transgenic mosquitoes to isolated locations, particularly when gene drive systems are involved. This is in agreement with the principle of scientific risk management, which recommends that the magnitude of potential risks be minimized by spatially limiting the release and providing mechanisms for removal of transgenes in the event of adverse effects (Beech et al., 2009).
Consequently, the strategy of population replacement is left with two competing mandates, at least during the testing phase. Transgenes must be able to spread to high frequencies locally, in order to provide an adequate test of the technology's ability to prevent disease (Boete and Koella, 2002, Boete and Koella, 2003); but they must not spread to significant levels in neighboring populations. The use of trap crops, vegetation-free zones and spatial isolation have been discussed in the context of confining an accidental release of transgenic mosquitoes from field cages (Benedict et al., 2008). Additionally, studies of mosquito ecology on islands off the coast of Africa have begun with an isolated transgenic release in mind (Pinto et al., 2003). These safeguards are effective at reducing the migration rate of mosquitoes to nearby locations; however, a small number of escapees are inevitable and, if these escapees carry invasive gene drive systems, this may be sufficient for transgenes to spread beyond their release site. The release of mosquitoes carrying only transgenes conferring disease refractoriness has been proposed (Benedict et al., 2008) and is an important step towards assessing the behavior of the refractory gene in the wild. However, gene drive systems will ultimately be required to achieve the transgenic frequencies necessary for disease control without prohibitive release sizes.
Underdominant systems provide a potential solution to these competing mandates (Altrock et al., 2010). The mosquito species that transmit human diseases are largely anthropophilic, forming subpopulations around human settlements as discrete blood sources (Service, 1993). Abstract two-population models have shown that an underdominant allele can become established in one population while persisting in a neighboring population at low frequencies provided that the migration rate between populations is sufficiently low and the strength of selection against heterozygotes is sufficiently strong (Karlin and McGregor, 1972, Lande, 1985, Altrock et al., 2010). The single underdominance allele described in these models is particularly difficult to engineer; however several genetic systems displaying similar properties have been proposed, including translocations (Curtis, 1968), engineered underdominance (Davis et al., 2001), and a variety of single-locus toxin–antidote systems such as Semele (Marshall et al., 2011), inverse Medea (Marshall and Hay, 2011a) and Medea with a recessive antidote (Merea).
A proper assessment of the ability to confine these systems to discrete populations will require a detailed ecological analysis, taking into account phenomenological features of the mosquito populations of interest – including seasonally fluctuating population sizes and migration rates as well as seasonally varying chromosomal form and species make-ups (Lanzaro et al., 1998, Taylor et al., 2001, Tripet et al., 2005). The present analysis, however, focuses on a comparison of the gene drive systems currently being considered, and their relative ability to be confined to partially isolated populations. For the purposes of comparison, we consider the simplest possible model of population structure—a two-population model in which mosquitoes with gene drive systems are introduced into one population, which exchanges migrants with a neighboring population. This differs from the analysis of Marshall (2009), which uses a branching process framework to compare the ability of gene drive systems to persist in the environment following an accidental release from a contained facility. Here, we use a simple difference equation framework to see whether there is a realistic set of parameters for which a transgene can become established at its release site without spreading into neighboring populations. We discuss the relevance of these findings to a phased release of transgenic mosquitoes intended for the control of vector-borne diseases, and to the strategy of population replacement in general.
Section snippets
Model development
We use two modeling frameworks to compare the degree to which mosquitoes engineered with various gene drive systems can be confined to their release site. First, we consider a source model in which transgenic mosquitoes have already reached equilibrium in population A, and population A donates a fraction, μ, of its population to population B at each generation (Fig. 1A). We include this model for its analytic tractability, and because it provides a good first approximation of a model in which
Medea
Medea elements spread through natural populations by causing the death of all offspring of heterozygous females that do not inherit the allele (Beeman et al., 1992, Wade and Beeman, 1994). Synthetic Medea elements have been engineered in Drosophila by linking a maternally expressed toxin with a zygotic antidote (Fig. 1C), and have been shown to drive population replacement in laboratory cage populations (Chen et al., 2007). We consider a Medea element as a single allele, which we denote by “M,”
Other invasive gene drive systems
Medea is an invasive gene drive system in the sense that it is predicted to spread into neighboring populations unless it is associated with a very large fitness cost. Three other gene drive systems that fall into this category are TEs, HEGs and Wolbachia. We show that TEs are predicted to spread into neighboring populations whenever they are capable of spreading at all. HEGs are one of the most invasive of the gene drive systems being considered, but can be confined if they are associated with
Underdominance
The simplest example of an underdominant system is a single bi-allelic locus for which the heterozygote is less fit than either homozygote (Hartl and Clark, 1997). In the extreme case, matings between opposite homozygotes are sterile, resulting in similar dynamics to bidirectional CI. Underdominant alleles therefore display high migration thresholds and are predicted to be confineable to partially isolated populations (Altrock et al., 2010). Attempts are currently underway to engineer
Other non-invasive gene drive systems
The four forms of underdominance outlined above are non-invasive in the sense that they are predicted to spread at their release site but only persist at low levels in neighboring populations. We show that three other gene drive systems belong to this category—Semele, inverse Medea and Merea. These systems each manipulate the offspring ratio in different ways by favoring one allele over another through the targeted action of a toxin and antidote encoded at a single locus.
Killer-rescue
A novel two-locus gene drive system has been suggested by Gould et al. (2008) that is self-limiting in time. The system consists of two alleles at unlinked loci—one that encodes a toxin (a killer allele), and another that confers immunity to the toxin (a rescue allele), which could be linked to a gene for disease refractoriness. A release of individuals homozygous for both alleles initially results in drive as the alleles segregate and the presence of the killer allele in the population confers
Spread beyond immediately neighboring populations
Finally, to monitor the spread of a gene drive system beyond its neighboring population, we adapt the two-population model to account for a series of five populations. Let us denote these as populations A, B, C, D and E. The populations are arranged in series, and the release occurs in population A. We further assume that the mating pool in population A is made up of individuals from populations A and B, the mating pool in population B is made up of individuals from populations A, B and C, and
Discussion
We have compared the confinement properties of a variety of gene drive systems being considered to drive disease-refractory genes into mosquito populations. Our results highlight several systems with desirable features for confinement. In simple two and five-population models, these systems require a high migration rate to become established in neighboring populations (greater than 4% per generation), and persist at low frequencies in neighboring populations for moderate migration rates (less
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Catherine Ward for advice on modeling, Charles Taylor for helpful discussions on mosquito dispersal, and the editor and two anonymous reviewers whose constructive comments have greatly improved the manuscript. John M. Marshall was supported by grant number DP1 OD003878 to Bruce A. Hay from the National Institutes of Health, and by a grant from the Medical Research Council, UK.
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