Augmented discounting: interaction between ageing and time-preference behaviour

Proc Biol Sci. 2003 May 22;270(1519):1047-53. doi: 10.1098/rspb.2003.2344.

Abstract

Discounting occurs when an immediate benefit is systematically valued more highly than a delayed benefit of the same magnitude. It is manifested in physiological and behavioural strategies of organisms. This study brings together life-history theory and time-preference theory within a single modelling framework. We consider an animal encountering reproductive opportunities as a random process. Under an external hazard, optimal life-history strategy typically prioritizes immediate reproduction at the cost of declining fertility and increasing mortality with age. Given such ageing, an immediate reproductive reward should be preferred to a delayed reward because of both the risk of death and declining fertility. By this analysis, ageing is both a consequence of discounting by the body and a cause of behavioural discounting. A series of models is developed, making different assumptions about external hazards and biological ageing. With realistic ageing assumptions (increasing mortality and an accelerating rate of fertility decline) the time-preference rate increases in old age. Under an uncertain external hazard rate, young adults should also have relatively high time-preference rates because their (Bayesian) estimate of the external hazard is high. Middle-aged animals may therefore be the most long term in their outlook.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aging / physiology*
  • Animals
  • Behavior, Animal / physiology*
  • Models, Biological*
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Reproduction / physiology
  • Time Factors