Quantifying the extinction vortex

Ecol Lett. 2006 Jan;9(1):51-60. doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00845.x.

Abstract

We developed a database of 10 wild vertebrate populations whose declines to extinction were monitored over at least 12 years. We quantitatively characterized the final declines of these well-monitored populations and tested key theoretical predictions about the process of extinction, obtaining two primary results. First, we found evidence of logarithmic scaling of time-to-extinction as a function of population size for each of the 10 populations. Second, two lines of evidence suggested that these extinction-bound populations collectively exhibited dynamics akin to those theoretically proposed to occur in extinction vortices. Specifically, retrospective analyses suggested that a population size of n individuals within a decade of extinction was somehow less valuable to persistence than the same population size was earlier. Likewise, both year-to-year rates of decline and year-to-year variability increased as the time-to-extinction decreased. Together, these results provide key empirical insights into extinction dynamics, an important topic that has received extensive theoretical attention.

Publication types

  • Letter

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Biological Evolution*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Databases, Factual
  • Models, Biological
  • Population Dynamics
  • Time Factors
  • Vertebrates / genetics
  • Vertebrates / physiology*