Rethinking adaptation for a 4°C world

Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2011 Jan 13;369(1934):196-216. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0277.

Abstract

With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.

MeSH terms

  • Adaptation, Biological
  • Adaptation, Psychological
  • Animals
  • Climate Change*
  • Conservation of Natural Resources
  • Earth, Planet
  • Ecology
  • Global Warming*
  • Humans
  • London
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Risk Management
  • Temperature
  • Water Supply