Bayesian inference of sampled ancestor trees for epidemiology and fossil calibration

PLoS Comput Biol. 2014 Dec 4;10(12):e1003919. doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003919. eCollection 2014 Dec.

Abstract

Phylogenetic analyses which include fossils or molecular sequences that are sampled through time require models that allow one sample to be a direct ancestor of another sample. As previously available phylogenetic inference tools assume that all samples are tips, they do not allow for this possibility. We have developed and implemented a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to infer what we call sampled ancestor trees, that is, trees in which sampled individuals can be direct ancestors of other sampled individuals. We use a family of birth-death models where individuals may remain in the tree process after sampling, in particular we extend the birth-death skyline model [Stadler et al., 2013] to sampled ancestor trees. This method allows the detection of sampled ancestors as well as estimation of the probability that an individual will be removed from the process when it is sampled. We show that even if sampled ancestors are not of specific interest in an analysis, failing to account for them leads to significant bias in parameter estimates. We also show that sampled ancestor birth-death models where every sample comes from a different time point are non-identifiable and thus require one parameter to be known in order to infer other parameters. We apply our phylogenetic inference accounting for sampled ancestors to epidemiological data, where the possibility of sampled ancestors enables us to identify individuals that infected other individuals after being sampled and to infer fundamental epidemiological parameters. We also apply the method to infer divergence times and diversification rates when fossils are included along with extant species samples, so that fossilisation events are modelled as a part of the tree branching process. Such modelling has many advantages as argued in the literature. The sampler is available as an open-source BEAST2 package (https://github.com/CompEvol/sampled-ancestors).

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Computational Biology / methods*
  • Evolution, Molecular
  • Fossils*
  • HIV Infections / virology
  • HIV-1 / classification
  • HIV-1 / genetics
  • Humans
  • Models, Genetic*
  • Phylogeny*
  • Software

Grants and funding

AG was funded by The University of Auckland Doctoral Scholarship https://www.auckland.ac.nz/. AJD was funded by a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship from the Royal Society of New Zealand http://www.royalsociety.org.nz. TS is supported in part by the European Research Council under the 7th Framework Programme of the European Commission (PhyPD: Grant Agreement Number 335529). AJD, DW, TS, and AG were partially funded by Marsden grant #UOA1324 from the Royal Society of New Zealand http://www.royalsociety.org.nz/programmes/funds/marsden/awards/2013-awards/. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.