Epidemiological models with age structure, proportionate mixing, and cross-immunity

J Math Biol. 1989;27(3):233-58. doi: 10.1007/BF00275810.

Abstract

Infection by one strain of influenza type A provides some protection (cross-immunity) against infection by a related strain. It is important to determine how this influences the observed co-circulation of comparatively minor variants of the H1N1 and H3N2 subtypes. To this end, we formulate discrete and continuous time models with two viral strains, cross-immunity, age structure, and infectious disease dynamics. Simulation and analysis of models with cross-immunity indicate that sustained oscillations cannot be maintained by age-specific infection activity level rates when the mortality rate is constant; but are possible if mortalities are age-specific, even if activity levels are independent of age. Sustained oscillations do not seem possible for a single-strain model, even in the presence of age-specific mortalities; and thus it is suggested that the interplay between cross-immunity and age-specific mortalities may underlie observed oscillations.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Aging*
  • Epidemiologic Methods*
  • Humans
  • Immunity*
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Models, Theoretical*