Aims: We investigated whether pre-existing diabetes, newly-diagnosed diabetes, and admission hyperglycemia were associated with COVID-19 severity independently from confounders.
Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data on patients with COVID-19 hospitalized between February and April 2020 in an outbreak hospital in North-East Italy. Pre-existing diabetes was defined by self-reported history, electronic medical records, or ongoing medications. Newly-diagnosed diabetes was defined by HbA1c and fasting glucose. The primary outcome was a composite of ICU admission or death.
Results: 413 subjects were included, 107 of whom (25.6%) had diabetes, including 21 newly-diagnosed. Patients with diabetes were older and had greater comorbidity burden. The primary outcome occurred in 37.4% of patients with diabetes compared to 20.3% in those without (RR 1.85; 95%C.I. 1.33-2.57; p < 0.001). The association was stronger for newly-diagnosed compared to pre-existing diabetes (RR 3.06 vs 1.55; p = 0.004). Higher glucose level at admission was associated with COVID-19 severity, with a stronger association among patients without as compared to those with pre-existing diabetes (interaction p < 0.001). Admission glucose was correlated with most clinical severity indexes and its association with adverse outcome was mostly mediated by a worse respiratory function.
Conclusion: Newly-diagnosed diabetes and admission hyperglycemia are powerful predictors of COVID-19 severity due to rapid respiratory deterioration.
Keywords: Mediation; Metabolism; Observational; Prediction; SARS-CoV-2; Survival.
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