Emerging and re-emerging pathogens exhibit very complex dynamics, are hard to model
and difficult to predict. Their dynamics might appear intractable. However, new statistical …

Many ecological systems are subject critical transitions, which are abrupt changes to
contrasting states triggered by small changes in some key component of the system. Temporal …

The majority of known early warning indicators of critical transitions rely on asymptotic
resilience and critical slowing down. In continuous systems, critical slowing down is …

Background Despite high vaccination coverage, many childhood infections pose a growing
threat to human populations. Accurate disease forecasting would be of tremendous value to …

Epidemic transitions are an important feature of infectious disease systems. As the transmissibility
of a pathogen increases, the dynamics of disease spread shifts from limited stuttering …

Timely forecasts of the emergence, re-emergence and elimination of human infectious
diseases allow for proactive, rather than reactive, decisions that save lives. Recent theory …

Short-term forecasts of the dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the period
up to its decline following mass vaccination was a task that received much attention but …

Infectious disease often occurs in small, independent outbreaks in populations with varying
characteristics. Each outbreak by itself may provide too little information for accurate …

Emerging diseases must make a transition from stuttering chains of transmission to
sustained chains of transmission, but this critical transition need not coincide with the system …

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and
response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 …