The natural rate of interest—the real interest rate consistent with output equaling its natural
rate and stable inflation—plays a central role in macroeconomic theory and monetary policy. …

According to standard macroeconomic models, the zero lower bound greatly reduces the
effectiveness of monetary policy and increases the efficacy of fiscal policy. However, private-…

US estimates of the natural rate of interest – the real short-term interest rate that would prevail
absent transitory disturbances – have declined dramatically since the start of the global …

The natural rate is an abstraction; like faith, it is seen by its works. One can only say that if
the bank policy succeeds in stabilizing prices, the bank rate must have been brought in line …

Is there too much or too little research and development (R&D)? In this paper we bridge the
gap between the recent growth literature and the empirical productivity literature. We derive …

The recent financial crisis saw a dramatic and persistent jump in interest rate spreads between
overnight federal funds and longer-term interbank loans. The Fed took several actions to …

We use a micro-founded macroeconometric modeling framework to investigate the design
of monetary policy when the central bank faces uncertainty about the true structure of the …

We investigate the performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules using five macroeconomic
models that reflect a wide range of views on aggregate dynamics. We identify the key …

Research and development is a key determinant of long-run productivity and welfare. A
central issue is whether a decentralized economy undertakes too little or too much R&D. We …

The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate
the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the …