Uncertainty in Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation based model comparison

T Sivula, M Magnusson, AA Matamoros… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2020 - arxiv.org
… Here we have not used bias correction and assume that small bias doesn’t change the
general behaviour compared to LOO-CV. If K-fold-CV is used with grouped data division to …

Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation approximations for Gaussian latent variable models

A Vehtari, T Mononen, V Tolvanen, T Sivula… - Journal of Machine …, 2016 - jmlr.org
The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian
cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the …

[PDF][PDF] Expectation propagation as a way of life: A framework for Bayesian inference on partitioned data

A Gelman, A Vehtari, P Jylänki, T Sivula… - arXiv preprint arXiv …, 2017 - stat.columbia.edu
… Assume we have obtained at iteration t for node k, a set of posterior simulation draws θs t,k,
s = 1,...,… , possibly with weights ws t,k; take ws t,k ≡ 1 for an unweighted sample. To progress …

Expectation propagation as a way of life: A framework for Bayesian inference on partitioned data

A Vehtari, A Gelman, T Sivula, P Jylänki, D Tran… - Journal of Machine …, 2020 - jmlr.org
… that is large enough, keep this sample, θs t,k+1 = θs t,k. Otherwise throw it away, simulate
new θs t+1,k’s from gt \k+1 , and reset the weights wt,k+1 to 1. This basic approach was used …

Customer satisfaction measurement in emergency medical services

M Kuisma, T Määttä, T Hakala, T Sivula… - Academic …, 2003 - Wiley Online Library
Objectives: The annual patient volume in emergency medical services (EMS) systems is high
worldwide. However, there are no comprehensive studies on customer satisfaction for EMS…

Machine Learning-Boosted Docking Enables the Efficient Structure-Based Virtual Screening of Giga-Scale Enumerated Chemical Libraries

T Sivula, L Yetukuri, T Kalliokoski… - Journal of Chemical …, 2023 - ACS Publications
The emergence of ultra-large screening libraries, filled to the brim with billions of readily
available compounds, poses a growing challenge for docking-based virtual screening. Machine …

[HTML][HTML] Evolutionary aspects of inorganic pyrophosphatase

T Sivula, A Salminen, AN Parfenyev, P Pohjanjoki… - FEBS letters, 1999 - Elsevier
… found in all plant PPases close to the N-terminus, an insertion of one asparagine residue
next to the conserved glycine (G-82 in E-PPase) and an insertion in the region where T. …

Computational and experimental performance analysis of a novel method for heating of domestic hot water with a ground source heat pump system

T Niemelä, M Manner, A Laitinen, TM Sivula… - Energy and …, 2018 - Elsevier
… F t o t a l = Q h e a t , t o t a l Q e l e c t r i c i t y , H P + a u x . where: Q heat,total is the total
heating energy produced by the heat pump system during the measurement period, including …

[HTML][HTML] Resolving outbreak dynamics using approximate Bayesian computation for stochastic birth–death models

J Lintusaari, P Blomstedt, B Rose, T Sivula… - Wellcome open …, 2019 - ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
… We give the net transmission rate t 1 a uniform prior over a large interval from 0 to 30.
Given the condition imposed by Inequality (3), we assign R 1 and R 2 uniform priors over a …

Unbiased estimator for the variance of the leave-one-out cross-validation estimator for a Bayesian normal model with fixed variance

T Sivula, M Magnusson, A Vehtari - Communications in Statistics …, 2023 - Taylor & Francis
… analytic expectation of the naive estimator is calculated by applying equations (A53) and (A54)
from the appendix, in the following known expectation in a more general setting (Sivula, …