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Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

J Lourenço, M Maia de Lima, NR Faria, A Walker, MUG Kraemer, CJ Villabona-Arenas, B Lambert, E Marques de Cerqueira, OG Pybus, LCJ Alcantara, M Recker
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/101972
J Lourenço
1Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
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  • For correspondence: lourenco.jml@gmail.com
M Maia de Lima
3FIOCRUZ, Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.
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NR Faria
1Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
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A Walker
1Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
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MUG Kraemer
1Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
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CJ Villabona-Arenas
4Institut de Recherche pour le Devéloppement (IRD), Universite de Montpellier, Montpellier, France.
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B Lambert
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E Marques de Cerqueira
2Centre of PostGraduation in Collective Health, Department of Health, Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, Bahia, Brazil.
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OG Pybus
1Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK
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LCJ Alcantara
3FIOCRUZ, Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.
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M Recker
5Centre for Mathematics and the Environment, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn TR10 9FE, UK
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Abstract

Zika has emerged as a global public health concern. Although its rapid geographic expansion can be attributed to the success of its Aedes mosquito vectors, local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. The city of Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the early phases of the Chikungunya and Zika epidemics in Brazil. Here, using a climate-driven transmission model, we show that low Zika observation rates and a high vectorial capacity in this region were responsible for a high attack rate during the 2015 outbreak and the subsequent decline in cases in 2016, when the epidemic was peaking in the rest of the country. Our projections indicate that the balance between the loss of herd-immunity and the frequency of viral re-importation will dictate the transmission potential of Zika in this region in the near future. Sporadic outbreaks are expected but unlikely to be detected under current surveillance systems.

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The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.
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Posted January 20, 2017.
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Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
J Lourenço, M Maia de Lima, NR Faria, A Walker, MUG Kraemer, CJ Villabona-Arenas, B Lambert, E Marques de Cerqueira, OG Pybus, LCJ Alcantara, M Recker
bioRxiv 101972; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/101972
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Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
J Lourenço, M Maia de Lima, NR Faria, A Walker, MUG Kraemer, CJ Villabona-Arenas, B Lambert, E Marques de Cerqueira, OG Pybus, LCJ Alcantara, M Recker
bioRxiv 101972; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/101972

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