Contradictory Results
No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds
View ORCID ProfileMartin Bulla, Jeroen Reneerkens, Emily L. Weiser, Aleksandr Sokolov, Audrey R. Taylor, Benoît Sittler, Brian J. McCaffery, Dan R. Ruthrauff, Daniel H. Catlin, David C. Payer, David H. Ward, Diana V. Solovyeva, Eduardo S.A. Santos, Eldar Rakhimberdiev, Erica Nol, Eunbi Kwon, Glen S. Brown, Glenda D. Hevia, H. River Gates, James A. Johnson, Jan A. van Gils, Jannik Hansen, Jean-François Lamarre, Jennie Rausch, Jesse R. Conklin, Joe Liebezeit, Joël Bêty, Johannes Lang, José A. Alves, Juan Fernández-Elipe, Klaus Michael-Exo, Loïc Bollache, Marcelo Bertellotti, Marie-Andrée Giroux, Martijn van de Pol, Matthew Johnson, Megan L. Boldenow, Mihai Valcu, Mikhail Soloviev, Natalya Sokolova, Nathan R. Senner, Nicolas Lecomte, Nicolas Meyer, Niels Martin Schmidt, Olivier Gilg, Paul A. Smith, Paula Machín, Rebecca L. McGuire, Ricardo A.S. Cerboncini, Richard Ottvall, Rob S.A. van Bemmelen, Rose J. Swift, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Sarah E. Jamieson, Stephen Brown, Theunis Piersma, Tomas Albrecht, Verónica D’Amico, Richard B. Lanctot, View ORCID ProfileBart Kempenaers
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/601047
Martin Bulla
1Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Department of Behavioural Ecology & Evolutionary Genetics, E Gwinner Str., 82319 Seewiesen, Germany
2NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The Netherlands
3Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Kamýcká 129, 16521 Prague, Czech Republic
Jeroen Reneerkens
2NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The Netherlands
4Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Conservation Ecology Group, P.O. Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, The Netherlands
Emily L. Weiser
5U.S. Geological Survey, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, 2630 Fanta Reed Rd, La Crosse, WI 54603, U.S.A.
Aleksandr Sokolov
6Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Arctic research station, Zelenaya Gorka, 21, 629400, Labytnangi, Russia
Audrey R. Taylor
7University of Alaska Anchorage, Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, 3211 Providence Drive, 99508, Anchorage, U.S.A.
Benoît Sittler
8University of Freiburg, Nature Conservation and Landscape Ecology, Tennenbacher Str. 4, 79106, Freiburg, Germany
9Arctic Ecology Research Group (GREA), 16 rue de Vernot, F-21440, Francheville, France
Brian J. McCaffery
10US Fish and Wildlife Service, Yukon Delta National Wildlife Refuge, 53980 County Highway D, 54839, Grand View, U.S.A.
Dan R. Ruthrauff
11US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, 4210 University Dr., 99508, Anchorage, U.S.A.
Daniel H. Catlin
12Virginia Tech, Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, 310 West Campus Drive, 24061, Blacksburg, U.S.A.
David C. Payer
13National Park Service, Natural Resource Sciences, 240 W 5th Ave., 99501, Anchorage, U.S.A.
David H. Ward
11US Geological Survey, Alaska Science Center, 4210 University Dr., 99508, Anchorage, U.S.A.
Diana V. Solovyeva
14Institute of Biological Problems of the North, FEB RAS, 18 Portovaya, Magadan, 685000, Russia
Eduardo S.A. Santos
15Universidade de São Paulo, BECO do Departamento de Zoologia, Rua do Matão, Trav. 14, n° 101, 05508-090, São Paulo, Brazil
Eldar Rakhimberdiev
4Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Conservation Ecology Group, P.O. Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, The Netherlands
16Lomonosov Moscow State University, Department of Vertebrate Zoology, Leninskiye Gory 1/12, 119234, Moscow, Russia
Erica Nol
17Trent University, Biology Department, 2140 East Bank Drive, K9J 7B8, Peterborough, Canada
Eunbi Kwon
12Virginia Tech, Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, 310 West Campus Drive, 24061, Blacksburg, U.S.A.
Glen S. Brown
18Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry, Wildlife Research and Monitoring, 2140 East Bank Drive, K9L 1Z8, Peterborough, Canada
Glenda D. Hevia
19Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos (CESIMAR)-CCT CONICET-CENPAT, Grupo de Ecofisiología Aplicada al Manejo y Conservación de Fauna Silvestre, Bvd. Brown 2915, 9120, Puerto Madryn, Argentina
H. River Gates
20National Audubon Society, Pacific Flyway Program, 431 W 7th Ave #101, 99501, Anchorage, U.S.A.
James A. Johnson
21U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management, 1011 East Tudor Road, 99503, Anchorage, U.S.A.
Jan A. van Gils
2NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The Netherlands
Jannik Hansen
22Aarhus University, Department of Bioscience, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000, Roskilde, Denmark
Jean-François Lamarre
23Polar Knowledge Canada, Science & Technology Program, 1 Uvajuq Place, X0B0C0, Cambridge Bay, Canada
Jennie Rausch
24Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada, P.O. Box 2310, X1A 2P7, Yellowknife, Canada
Jesse R. Conklin
4Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Conservation Ecology Group, P.O. Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, The Netherlands
Joe Liebezeit
25Audubon Society of Portland, 5151 NW Cornell Road, 97210, Portland, U.S.A.
Joël Bêty
26University of Quebec at Rimouski, Department of Biology and Center for Northern Studies, 300 Allee des ursulines, G5L 3A1, Rimouski, Canada
Johannes Lang
9Arctic Ecology Research Group (GREA), 16 rue de Vernot, F-21440, Francheville, France
27Giessen University, Clinic for Birds, Reptiles, Amphibians and Fish / Working Group for Wildlife Biology, Frankfurter Str. 91-93, 35392, Giessen, Germany
José A. Alves
28DBIO & CESAM-Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies, Department of Biology, University of Aveiro, 3810-193, Aveiro, Portugal
29South Iceland Research Centre, University of Iceland, Fjolheimar IS-800 Selfoss & IS-861 Gunnarsholt, Iceland
Juan Fernández-Elipe
30Aptdo.correos 32, 5480, Candeleda, Spain
Klaus Michael-Exo
31Institute of Avian Research “Vogelwarte Helgoland”, An der Vogelwarte 21, 26386, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
Loïc Bollache
32Université de Franche-Comté, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS-UFC, F-25000, Besançon, France
Marcelo Bertellotti
19Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos (CESIMAR)-CCT CONICET-CENPAT, Grupo de Ecofisiología Aplicada al Manejo y Conservación de Fauna Silvestre, Bvd. Brown 2915, 9120, Puerto Madryn, Argentina
Marie-Andrée Giroux
33Université de Moncton, Faculty of Sciences, K.-C.-Irving Research Chair in Environmental Sciences and Sustainable Development, 18 avenue Antonine-Maillet, E1A 3E9, Moncton, Canada
Martijn van de Pol
34Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Department of Animal Ecology, Droevendaalsesteeg 10, 6708PB, Wageningen, The Netherlands
Matthew Johnson
35USDA Forest Service, Plumas National Forest, 159 Lawrence Street, 95971, Quincy, U.S.A.
Megan L. Boldenow
36University of Alaska Fairbanks, Biology and Wildlife Department, 2090 Koyukuk Drive, 99775, Fairbanks, U.S.A.
Mihai Valcu
1Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Department of Behavioural Ecology & Evolutionary Genetics, E Gwinner Str., 82319 Seewiesen, Germany
Mikhail Soloviev
16Lomonosov Moscow State University, Department of Vertebrate Zoology, Leninskiye Gory 1/12, 119234, Moscow, Russia
Natalya Sokolova
6Institute of Plant and Animal Ecology, Arctic research station, Zelenaya Gorka, 21, 629400, Labytnangi, Russia
Nathan R. Senner
37University of South Carolina, Department of Biological Sciences, 715 Sumter Street, 29208, Columbia, U.S.A.
Nicolas Lecomte
38Uninversité de Moncton, Department of Biology and Canada Research Chair in Polar and Boreal Ecology, 18, Antonine-Maillet, E1A 3E9, Moncton, Canada
Nicolas Meyer
9Arctic Ecology Research Group (GREA), 16 rue de Vernot, F-21440, Francheville, France
32Université de Franche-Comté, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS-UFC, F-25000, Besançon, France
Niels Martin Schmidt
22Aarhus University, Department of Bioscience, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000, Roskilde, Denmark
39Aarhus University, Arctic Research Centre, Ny Munkegade 114, 8000, Aarhus C, Denmark
Olivier Gilg
9Arctic Ecology Research Group (GREA), 16 rue de Vernot, F-21440, Francheville, France
32Université de Franche-Comté, Laboratoire Chrono-environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS-UFC, F-25000, Besançon, France
Paul A. Smith
40Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Wildlife Research Centre, 1125 Colonel By Dr, K1S 5B6, Ottawa, Canada
Paula Machín
30Aptdo.correos 32, 5480, Candeleda, Spain
Rebecca L. McGuire
41Wildlife Conservation Society, Arctic Beringia Program, 3550 Airport Way, Unit 5, 99709, Fairbanks, U.S.A.
Ricardo A.S. Cerboncini
42Universidade Federal do Paraná, Departamento de Zoologia, Av. Coronel Francisco H. dos Santos 100, 81531-980, Curitiba, Brazil
Richard Ottvall
43Frostavallsv 325, S-24393, Hoor, Sweden
Rob S.A. van Bemmelen
44Wageningen Marine Research, Haringkade 1, 1976CP, IJmuiden, The Netherlands
Rose J. Swift
45Cornell University, Cornell Lab of Ornithology and Department of Natural Resources, 159 Sapsucker Woods Rd, 14850, Ithaca, U.S.A.
Sarah T. Saalfeld
21U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management, 1011 East Tudor Road, 99503, Anchorage, U.S.A.
Sarah E. Jamieson
46Simon Fraser University, Centre for Wildlife Ecology, 8888 University Dr, V5A1S6, Burnaby, Canada
Stephen Brown
47Manomet Inc., Shorebird Recovery Program, PO Box 545, 05154, Saxtons River, U.S.A.
Theunis Piersma
2NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Department of Coastal Systems and Utrecht University, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg, Texel, The Netherlands
4Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences (GELIFES), University of Groningen, Conservation Ecology Group, P.O. Box 11103, 9700 CC Groningen, The Netherlands
Tomas Albrecht
48Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Vertebrate Biology, Kvetna 8, 60300, Brno, Czech Republic
49Charles University, Faculty of Science, 128 44 Prague, Czech Republic
Verónica D’Amico
19Centro para el Estudio de Sistemas Marinos (CESIMAR)-CCT CONICET-CENPAT, Grupo de Ecofisiología Aplicada al Manejo y Conservación de Fauna Silvestre, Bvd. Brown 2915, 9120, Puerto Madryn, Argentina
Richard B. Lanctot
21U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management, 1011 East Tudor Road, 99503, Anchorage, U.S.A.
Bart Kempenaers
1Max Planck Institute for Ornithology, Department of Behavioural Ecology & Evolutionary Genetics, E Gwinner Str., 82319 Seewiesen, Germany
Abstract
Kubelka et al. (Report, 9 November 2018, p. 680-683) claim that climate change has disrupted patterns of nest predation in shorebirds. They report that predation rates have increased since the 1950s, especially in the Arctic. We describe methodological problems with their analyses and argue that there is no solid statistical support for their claims.
Copyright
The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license.
Posted April 22, 2019.
No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds
Martin Bulla, Jeroen Reneerkens, Emily L. Weiser, Aleksandr Sokolov, Audrey R. Taylor, Benoît Sittler, Brian J. McCaffery, Dan R. Ruthrauff, Daniel H. Catlin, David C. Payer, David H. Ward, Diana V. Solovyeva, Eduardo S.A. Santos, Eldar Rakhimberdiev, Erica Nol, Eunbi Kwon, Glen S. Brown, Glenda D. Hevia, H. River Gates, James A. Johnson, Jan A. van Gils, Jannik Hansen, Jean-François Lamarre, Jennie Rausch, Jesse R. Conklin, Joe Liebezeit, Joël Bêty, Johannes Lang, José A. Alves, Juan Fernández-Elipe, Klaus Michael-Exo, Loïc Bollache, Marcelo Bertellotti, Marie-Andrée Giroux, Martijn van de Pol, Matthew Johnson, Megan L. Boldenow, Mihai Valcu, Mikhail Soloviev, Natalya Sokolova, Nathan R. Senner, Nicolas Lecomte, Nicolas Meyer, Niels Martin Schmidt, Olivier Gilg, Paul A. Smith, Paula Machín, Rebecca L. McGuire, Ricardo A.S. Cerboncini, Richard Ottvall, Rob S.A. van Bemmelen, Rose J. Swift, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Sarah E. Jamieson, Stephen Brown, Theunis Piersma, Tomas Albrecht, Verónica D’Amico, Richard B. Lanctot, Bart Kempenaers
bioRxiv 601047; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/601047
No evidence for disruption of global patterns of nest predation in shorebirds
Martin Bulla, Jeroen Reneerkens, Emily L. Weiser, Aleksandr Sokolov, Audrey R. Taylor, Benoît Sittler, Brian J. McCaffery, Dan R. Ruthrauff, Daniel H. Catlin, David C. Payer, David H. Ward, Diana V. Solovyeva, Eduardo S.A. Santos, Eldar Rakhimberdiev, Erica Nol, Eunbi Kwon, Glen S. Brown, Glenda D. Hevia, H. River Gates, James A. Johnson, Jan A. van Gils, Jannik Hansen, Jean-François Lamarre, Jennie Rausch, Jesse R. Conklin, Joe Liebezeit, Joël Bêty, Johannes Lang, José A. Alves, Juan Fernández-Elipe, Klaus Michael-Exo, Loïc Bollache, Marcelo Bertellotti, Marie-Andrée Giroux, Martijn van de Pol, Matthew Johnson, Megan L. Boldenow, Mihai Valcu, Mikhail Soloviev, Natalya Sokolova, Nathan R. Senner, Nicolas Lecomte, Nicolas Meyer, Niels Martin Schmidt, Olivier Gilg, Paul A. Smith, Paula Machín, Rebecca L. McGuire, Ricardo A.S. Cerboncini, Richard Ottvall, Rob S.A. van Bemmelen, Rose J. Swift, Sarah T. Saalfeld, Sarah E. Jamieson, Stephen Brown, Theunis Piersma, Tomas Albrecht, Verónica D’Amico, Richard B. Lanctot, Bart Kempenaers
bioRxiv 601047; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/601047
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